Tofino Surf Check – Winter Conditions
March 10th, 2025
Imagine this: you’ve packed your gear, waxed your surfboard, and driven to a surf spot, only to find that the waves are flat, it’s super windy, or the lineup is overcrowded. Sounds frustrating, right? That’s what the surf check is for.
So what is a surf check in the first place?
It is a quick assessment of the ocean and weather conditions to make sure it is safe and suitable for surfing. We look for information to determine wave size, wind direction, tides and potential hazards. You can start your surf check at home and analyze the data online, then follow up with an in-person check at the beach to see if the data matches the actual conditions at the beach.
Surf check for Tofino beaches
1. Get a general idea
First we have a look at Surfline to get a general idea. It provides forecasts on ocean conditions for several days. They also have live cameras for lots of surf spots, unfortunately not for Tofino.
Here’s an example of a Surfline forecast for Cox Bay beach. You can see the predicted wave height on the left, primary and secondary swell size in the middle, wind direction and weather on the right side.
At a first glance, this spreadsheet is saying it’s a fair day to surf at Cox Bay: big waves from WSW direction with an offshore wind that’s getting stronger throughout the day. Considering swell size and direction, Cox Bay will be too big and we’ll have to surf at North Chesterman. Let’s see what other websites and cameras have to say.
2. Check the swell
For the Tofino location we check the La Perouse Bank buoy status report which tells us direction, size and period of the swell that is coming towards our shores.
Why is that important?
A longer period (12s or more) generally indicates that the waves have traveled a longer distance, which often results in more powerful and well-organized waves, creating better surfing conditions. Shorter swell periods (8s or less) usually result in choppier and less predictable conditions.
The direction of the swell is important because the waves might be travelling straight towards the beach or miss it completely. Our coastline is facing south-west, that’s why a SW or W swell is great for our beaches.
Station 46206 – La Perouse Bank
You can see the buoy is reading WSW 6.9ft @ 6.9 sec. A very similar size as Surfline predicted for about 3-4pm but a shorter period.
3. Wind
Checking for wind is crucial because it significantly affects wave quality and surfability. We check for speed and direction of the wind.
Wind direction
Offshore wind: when it’s blowing from land to ocean, the wind helps shape clean and well-defined waves, which are great for surfing.
Onshore wind: when it’s blowing from ocean to land it creates choppy and messy waves, not favorable.
Wind speed
Wind influences water movement. Strong winds can build up a swell or break the waves down too early. They also create rips and currents, unpredictable conditions, and poor visibility.
Light wind: 0-5 knots (ideal for surfing)
Moderate wind: 6-15 knots (surfable depending on direction)
Strong wind: 16-25 knots (blows out the surf if onshore, offshore is surfable but harder paddle into waves)
Very strong wind: 25+ knots (usually chaotic and unsurfable)
Tofino Airport – past 24h conditions – for current wind conditions
Windy – Tofino – wind forecast
You can see Windy is predicting similar wind conditions as Surfline. It is saying the wind is East at the speed of 22 knots (40 km/h), which is a strong offshore wind.
4. Tides
Tides directly impact overall surf conditions by affecting wave quality and power, and creating rips and currents. A surf break that looks bad at low tide might be perfect a few hours later.
Here in Tofino we have a big tidal range, largest ones up to 4 meters (13 feet). All our surf spots are beach breaks. The tide can significantly change how a beach break works. For example:
- Cox Bay is generally best at mid to high tide but in the past few weeks it was actually best at low tide, because the sandbar was all messed up making the waves closeout right on shore when the tide was higher
- Mid-tide is often best for North Chesterman Beach. The waves are too dumpy at low tide and they can lose shape when the tide is really high
- South Chesterman Beach is best at low to mid tide. High tide will have more white wash and is more beginner friendly
- Long Beach is better with more water so anything but low tide usually works great
Tofino Tides – the only correct tide chart for Tofino
5. Check the cams
Quick look at the cameras can save you a lot of time. If the conditions are bad, you don’t waste your time going to that beach and packing all the gear. It can also help you decide which surfboard to bring, longboard or shortboard.
Forecasts are not always accurate but a camera gives you real time conditions. While it’s not that easy to evaluate the size of the waves on camera, you can see if they are clean and peeling or messy and blown out. You can also see how many surfers are in the water, what the weather and wind conditions are and maybe tide height (depending on how much of the beach the camera is showing).
These are all the cameras we have for Tofino beaches:
North Chesterman beach from Wickaninnish Inn
Cox Bay beach from Pacific Sands Resort
Mackenzie Beach from Ocean Village (only has waves occasionally in the winter months)
Cox Bay online camera ⤵️
6. Drive to the beach
Nothing beats a plain old ‘drive to the beach and have a look’ surf check. Real time conditions, seeing it in person, is the best way of determining if it’s worth putting on a wetsuit and going into an 8 C (46 F) cold Pacific Ocean.
Cox Bay: Looks huge, rough and messy. There are no surfers out. You can see those strong East winds by the amount of spray on the waves. ⤵️
South Chesterman: Looks smaller and messy. Would be good for a beginner in a white wash but not to surf green waves. ⤵️
North Chesterman: We have a winner! 🏄♂️ Looks like the beach to go to in these specific conditions. The wave is peeling and there’s a surfer on it. It looks windy but doable. ⤵️
Conclusion
So this is how we do a surf check from home to determine if it’s a good day for surfing and which beach to go to. Start your surf check online to see if it is even worth driving to the beach in the first place, decide on which beach would be the best option and then have a look there first. It is important to remember that conditions change every day, hour by hour, and what was a great option yesterday might not be as fun today.
As you can see through our surf check, North Chesterman would have been the right choice from the start. A general rule is: if the swell is bigger than 6ft, the waves will too big at Cox Bay and we have to surf North Chesterman. (Unless you’re Pete Devries 😆)
If you ever need help deciding which beach to go to, you can give us a call or text us at +1 (250) 266-3787.
Happy surfing! 🤙
Lara & The Swell Team